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Some analysts need to stop the insanity when it comes to the subscriber projections they are making for AT&T’s soon to be released DirecTV Now streaming service. I’ve read numbers from some projecting 2M to an outlandish MoffettNathanson report estimating that DirecTV Now could draw about 11M subscribers.

I have confirmed that AT&T will be using at least three CDN partners, including Akamai, Level 3 and Limelight networks to deliver the streaming service. Between all three vendors, AT&T is reserving delivery capacity to support about 1M total simultaneous subscribers. While some have speculated the new AT&T service would be a financial windfall for Akamai since AT&T is a big reseller of Akamai’s services, the revenue impact is minimal. The service also won’t drive any substantial revenue for AT&T in the short or near term.

Running the numbers, if AT&T signed up 1M subscribers on day one, and each subscriber watches 90 hours of video a month, (3 hours a day), the total volume of traffic per user would be 85GB, using the average bitrate of 2.1Mbps. Multiply that times 1M subs and the total volume of bits delivered each month would be 85,000,000GB per month. If each of the three CDNs all got 1/3 of the traffic and AT&T was paying $0.03 per GB delivered, the value of the contract to each CDN would be $850,000 a month. But AT&T won’t have 1M subscribers from day one, will be paying much less than $0.03 per GB and most users probably won’t watch 90 hours a month, or will watch some on mobile, which takes up far fewer bits. For the first few quarters the delivery business would only be worth about $250,000 to each CDN per month, as AT&T ramps. Updated: Some are asking why I used such a high price per GB number. I used the $0.03 pricing number to show that even if AT&T was paying a high rate, the revenue to the CDNs isn’t that much. And while I don’t know exactly what AT&T is paying, it should be below one cent per GB delivered. Probably more in the half a cent range, hence why the business is only worth about $250,000 a month, to the CDNs.

AT&T has said the service will cost $35 a month, but it is expected that price they are quoting will come with restrictions and caveats. For instance the need to take other AT&T services (wireless), a lower quality stream (bitrate), or the limitation of only being able to have one user stream from the service at a time. Earlier in the year when AT&T was talking about their new live offering, the company described the service as a way to “funnel” consumers to more expensive AT&T services and bundles.

There are still a lot of unanswered questions about AT&T’s DirecTV Now service including the exact channel lineup, device/platform support, quality of the video, support for concurrent streaming within the same household and ease of use amongst others. All of these factor into determining the growth and popularity of the service, which has a direct impact on the value of the business to all of the CDN providers and AT&T. Updated: AT&T has launched a new site for their service and they list the Apple TV and Amazon Fire TV as being supported, hopefully additional hardware like the Roku, Xbox, and PS4 will also be supported at launch.

The way that people watch television is changing. As the broadcast industry gradually transitions to IP and consumers adopt more online video, it’s clear that a transformation is underway. But what will TV look like in 5 years? At the Streaming Media West show, [taking place November 1-2 in Huntington Beach, CA] we have a session that will explore the future of television and how the gradual, generational shift from linear broadcast to online will fundamentally change not only consumption but the underlying business models as well. Attendees will learn about the long-term vision for the television experience and how they can prepare (and plan) to take advantage of the evolution in video consumption that is happening today. Confirmed speakers include:

• Moderator: Jason Thibeault, Executive Director, Streaming Video Alliance
  
• Roger Williams, VP, Media Operations, MLBAM
  
• Campbell Foster, Director of Product Marketing, Adobe Primetime
  
• Keith Valory, CEO, Plex
  
• Gabriella Mirabelli, CEO, ANATOMY

Register online using the code 200DR for a free “Discovery Pass” and get access to the keynotes, exhibit hall, discovery track sessions, and receptions at #smwest – at no cost – or get $200 off a full conference pass.

Education video usage both inside and outside the classroom is on the rise. The process of creating, managing, and delivering live and on-demand content continues to evolve. What technologies and best practices are schools using? At the Streaming Media West show, [taking place November 1-2 in Huntington Beach, CA] we have a session that will explore successful workflows schools have developed to simplify video adoption and make the technology more transparent to educators and students. Our education panelists will also recommend crawl-walk-run implementation steps and share lessons learned. Confirmed speakers include:

• Moderator: Chris Knowlton, VP, Streaming Industry Evangelist, Wowza Media
  
• Todd Stabley, Senior Media Engineer, Duke University
  
• Nicholas Berrios, Media Specialist, Argo Community High School
  
• Jonathan Schwartz, Director, Video Productions and Operations, University of Southern California
  
• Gary San Angel, Distance Education Specialist, Media Technology, Keck School of Medicine of USC

Register online using the code 200DR for a free “Discovery Pass” and get access to the keynotes, exhibit hall, discovery track sessions, and receptions at #smwest – at no cost – or get $200 off a full conference pass.

In 2016, The New York Times created a new team to build a faster, cloud-based and reliable video publishing pipeline. At the Streaming Media West show, [taking place November 1-2 in Huntington Beach, CA] Maxwell Da Silva, Director of Video Technology at The New York Times will walk through the set of microservices being developed by the NY Times Media Factory team to create an elastic and reliable solution that can be used across the globe. Learn about content acquisition; transcoding; distribution; APIs and how the NY Times is support a set of new requirements such as adaptive streaming and VR/360° videos.

Register online using the code 200DR for a free “Discovery Pass” and get access to the keynotes, exhibit hall, discovery track sessions, and receptions at #smwest – at no cost – or get $200 off a full conference pass.

Virtual Reality (VR) and 360-degree are emerging as two of the most innovative live streaming trends, powering events such as sporting events, concerts, corporate meetings, education, medicine, military applications, and many other areas. At the Streaming Media West show, [taking place November 1-2 in Huntington Beach, CA] you’ll get to see live demos and get more familiar with the technology as we walk through some common 360-degree live streaming workflows. Learn how most VR technologies use industry-standard streaming protocols that can be implemented with common streaming servers and platforms. Chris Knowlton, VP, and Streaming Industry Evangelist at Wowza Media will also show a few 360-degree camera examples, and review how playback is achieved using common player apps.

Register online using the code 200DR for a free “Discovery Pass” and get access to the keynotes, exhibit hall, discovery track sessions, and receptions at #smwest – at no cost – or get $200 off a full conference pass.

The Streaming Media West show kicks off next week, November 1-2 in Huntington Beach, CA. We’ve got 4 networking events all lined up that include lunch, the beer garden and other receptions. It’s not too late to get a free discovery pass or full conference pass. Register online using code 200DR for a free discovery pass or $200 off a full conference pass.

Monday
Oct 31st 5:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
Sunset Welcome Reception – Sponsored by Tulix
Location: Lighthouse Courtyard
Grab a drink, sit back, relax, and enjoy the sunset! Open to all full-conference attendees, speakers, and vendors. Tulix will be giving away an iPad Pro to one attendee at the reception.

Tuesday
Nov 1st 12:30 p.m. – 1:45 p.m.
Attendee Lunch on the Lawn – Sponsored By Neulion
Location: Lighthouse Courtyard
All full-conference attendees and speakers are invited to enjoy “Lunch on Lawn”. After a full morning of sessions head on outside to the beautiful Lighthouse Courtyard for some California sunshine and networking with fellow attendees.

Tuesday
Nov 1st 5:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.
Exhibit Hall Reception
Location: Exhibit Hall
Enjoy drinks while getting a firsthand look at the leading software, hardware, and network solutions and services in the streaming media industry. Open to all conference attendees, speakers and exhibits-only attendees.

Tuesday
Nov 1st 6:00 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.
Streaming Media Beer Garden & Networking – Sponsored by Ustream, an IBM Company
Location: Lighthouse Courtyard
Join us for a fun night on the lawn as you network with industry peers while enjoying a selection of good brews and eats. Open to all attendees, speakers, and vendors.

New processors and consumer devices are making big bets on HEVC, even as AVC remains ubiquitous. Despite some risk, HEVC can add significant value in certain use cases. At the Streaming Media West show, [taking place November 1-2 in Huntington Beach, CA] Avni Rambhia, Industry Principal, at Frost & Sullivan will present her latest forecast for HEVC uptake, from an objective and reliable perspective. She will also provide an update to Frost’s long-trusted recommendations on choice of codecs and architectures for popular applications, in the context of ongoing trends such as 4K, virtual reality and virtualization.

Register online using the code 200DR for a free “Discovery Pass” and get access to the keynotes, exhibit hall, discovery track sessions, and receptions at #smwest – at no cost – or get $200 off a full conference pass.