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Episode 31: Q2 Earnings Recap From Disney, Akamai, Edgio, Vizio, Trade Desk

Podcast Episode 31 is live! This week we recap all the news from Disney’s April-June earnings including their D2C business losing over $1B in the quarter; their addition of 14.4M Disney+ subs globally; Hulu and Disney+ price raises; Hulu losing 3.4M SVOD subs and 100,000 Live TV subs and their launch of Disney+ with ads in December. We also cover the numbers you need to know from Akamai (Revenue up 6% y/o/y), Edgio (Initial 2023 revenue outlook of between $550-$560 million), Vizio (Platform+ net revenue up 69% y/o/y), and Trade Desk earnings (revenue grew 35% y/o/y). Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.

Companies, and services mentioned: Disney, Netflix, Hulu, Tubi, Fox, ESPN+, Paramount+, Disney + Hotstar, Indian Premium League, Vizio, The Trade Desk, Edgio, Akamai, Roblox, Coinbase.

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Qwilt and NCTC Members To Offer Better Video QoE by Deploying Caches Inside Rural ISPs

Last month, Qwilt and the National Content and Technology Cooperative (NCTC), announced significant progress on their initiative to upgrade NCTC member networks across the United States to help ISPs deploy an edge CDN, providing high-quality content delivery and better digital experiences. Combined, NCTC members reach 34 million households in the US but many of these ISPs are very small and don’t have caches from commercial CDNs within their network.

NCTC’s program with Qwilt will allow their members more control over content flows and catering to the needs of global and regional content providers for more capacity, consistency and performance in video delivery. A single API allows content publishers access to a national federation of NCTC member networks and monetization of content delivery for NCTC ISPs through revenue sharing with content providers. More than 100 NCTC members have signed up to deploy the Qwilt CDN inside their network and are expected to have it in production by the end of Q3. While Qwilt won’t discuss the total combined network capacity across all ISPs, I would expect it to be in the range of 25 Tbps of egress capacity, using the math of 15-20 Gbps of capacity per deployed server.

These deployments will help deliver video to areas where QoE could be a larger problem and while not mentioned in the release, I would expect that Disney+ will be one of the first OTT services to go across this distribution network, since Qwilt already has a commercial relationship with Disney. In addition, the NCTC negotiates agreements with OTT content providers to give their members economical access to streaming content. For NCTC members that participate in their OTT agreements, independent operators gain access to a portfolio of entertainment options with the goal of attracting and retaining cord-cutters and cord-nevers. The NCTC currently has agreements in place with Cheddar, CuriosityStream, Disney+, ESPN+, HBO Max, Hulu, Peacock, fuboTV and Philo.

If you look at the NCTC as a collective ISP, they are larger than Comcast when it comes to the number of households they serve. The new caches from Qwilt will allow smaller ISPs to deliver the type of video experiences that most viewers expect and get within larger ISP. This allows regional service providers to compete with the same level of QoE and get the exact same technology that Verizon uses in their deal with Qwilt, but they don’t have to be the size of Verizon to get access to the caches.

While on-demand video will be the first use case for the deployment, I expect that live streaming will also come to the platform and is where ISPs will really see some immediate benefits on the QoE side. Large-scale live events, with unknown traffic spikes, is where we see the majority of QoE problems, so I would expect we’ll see first-hand accounts of ISPs delivering live events via the caches in the immediate future. Qwilt hasn’t given a timeline on the other types of content the platform will support, but they did tell me they expect the caches to be able to handle software downloads and other content shortly.

Over the years we have seen a lot of CDN models come to the carrier and service provider market, with little success. But this deal with the NCTC is by far the largest deployment to date, based on the numbers of households it covers. With about 132 million households in the US, the Qwilt caches will cover almost 27% of all those households and provides and open caching platform that federates otherwise isolated carrier CDN models into a unified global CDN.

Episode 30: Why FAST Is Overrated; Earnings Recap from Paramount, Fubo, Warner Bros. Discovery, AMC, Lionsgate, Fastly, Vimeo

Podcast Episode 30 is live! This week we discuss why FAST services are overrated; the news that HBO Max and Discovery+ will launch as a single service in the U.S. next summer; we highlight the key data you need to know from Q2 earnings from Paramount (added 4.9M Paramount+ subs), fuboTV, (lost 70,000 subs), Lionsgate (added 1.8M Starz subs) and cover earnings from streaming vendors including Fastly, Brightcove and Vimeo. We also discuss why WPP, which is the world’s biggest advertising agency group, raised its revenue growth targets for 2022. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.

Companies, and services mentioned: Warner Bros. Discovery, HBO Max, Discovery+, fuboTV, Netflix, Tubi, Pluto TV, Paramount+, Sling TV, AMC Networks, F1, Lionsgate, Starz, Roku, Canal+, WPP, Liberty Media, Altice, Fastly, Cloudflare, Vimeo, Brightcove.

Episode 29: Earnings Recap; Key Takeaways from Roku, Amazon, Apple, Charter, YouTube, Microsoft and Comcast

Podcast Episode 29 is live! This week we breakdown the key numbers you need to know from Q2 earnings at Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Comcast, Roku, Charter, Meta, Microsoft and Samsung. We cover the “significant slowdown in TV advertising” seen by Roku and others; Meta’s price per ad falling by 14%; Peacock TV subs being flat quarter-over-quarter; cord cutting from Charter (lost 240,000 pay TV subs) and Comcast (lost 521,000 pay TV subs); and YouTube’s slowest ad revenue growth in over two years. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.

Companies, and services mentioned: Companies, and services mentioned: YouTube, Netflix, Apple, Meta, Comcast, Charter, Peacock TV, Alphabet, Microsoft, Panopto, Kaltura, Shofify, Google Cloud, Quest 2, Samsung, AWS, Roku, Amazon, Apple TV+, NFL, Amazon Prime Video.

Episode 28: Extending Video Delivery To Rural ISPs; Snap and Twitter See Declining Ad Growth; Verizon Cord Cutting Accelerates

Podcast Episode 28 is live! This week we discuss the latest advertising numbers from Twitter and Snap’s Q2 earnings, which saw slowing demand for their platforms and had declining revenue. We also highlight the rate of Verizon’s cord-cutting numbers, with the company losing 86,000 pay TV subscribers in Q2 and have now lost 8.1% of all their pay TV subs in the last 12-months. Also discussed, Qwilt’s deal with the NCTC to deploy CDN caches inside 100+ rural ISPs that combined, reach 34 million households. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.

Companies, and services mentioned: Disney, ESPN+, Apple TV, fuboTV, Verizon, Twitter, Snap, MLB, ESPN+, HBO Max, Amazon Prime Video, Qwilt, Vimeo.

Edgecast Valued at $120M (0.5x 2021 Revenue) in Closing Transaction with Limelight Networks

In June, Edgio closed on the acquisition of Edgecast from Yahoo (Apollo Global Management) and it was widely reported that the deal for the company valued Edgecast at close to $300 million, which is incorrect. While the initial value for Edgecast was $185 million, Apollo gave Edgio $30 million in cash as part of the deal. They also gave Edgio a second $35 million cash payment for customary working capital adjustments, in exchange for 8 million shares in Edgio, the newly combined entity consisting of Limelight, Layer0 and Edgecast. One could argue that if you subtract the $65 million in cash Apollo gave Edgio, Edgecast was really valued at $120 million, or less than half of Edgecast’s 2021 revenue of $285 million. Here’s a breakdown on the deal terms.

Yahoo received 72 million shares from Edgio for the acquisition based on a locked in 30-day trailing VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) of $4.12 a share. But the effective price of Limelight shares (Limelight has since changed its ticker symbol and now trades under EGIO) at closing was approximately $2.30, so the net price Edgio paid based on shares issued and their market value was approximately $165 million.

As happens in every M&A situation, there are customary working capital adjustments at close, which amounted to approximately $35 million. In essence Edgecast was coming over with about $35 million more of assets. So Apollo, who was bullish on Edgio’s new strategy, decided to take 8 million shares in exchange for the assets. Apollo only got 8 million shares for that investment because it was based on the deal locked in VWAP price of $4.12. So in effect, Edgio issued another 8 million shares to Apollo in return for $35 million more of cash at closing indexed to Edgio’s locked-in VWAP price of $4.12. A 68% premium to the current price.

Yahoo (Apollo) can also receive up to an additional 12.7 million shares of Edgio, representing up to $100 million of additional deal consideration, over the period ending on the third anniversary of the closing of the transaction, subject to the achievement of share-price targets. Edgio stockholders now own approximately 65% of the combined company, while Yahoo will own approximately 35% respectively.

The final outcome of the deal is that Limelight more than doubled their revenue for $185 million and also got an additional $65 million of cash to go with it. So arguably Limelight’s final net price for Edgecast was approximately $120 million for the transaction. This is by far the best deal we have ever seen negotiated by a CDN vendor in acquiring a rival CDN, where the company wasn’t going under.

Note: I have never bought, sold or traded stock in any company that offers content delivery services – ever. Even in my managed accounts, no CDN vendor is included. I do not make money in any way, based on the share price of any CDN vendor.

Episode 27: Netflix Q2 Earnings Recap: Sub Counts; Balance Sheet; Ad-Supported Tier Opportunity

Podcast Episode 27 is live! This week we discuss the key takeaways from Netflix’s Q2 earnings report including subscriber losses for two-quarters in a row, what Netflix expects for growth going forward and the current state of Netflix’s balance sheet. We also detail what we’ve learned about their plans to offer an ad-supported tier and why we believe this is a real opportunity for Netflix, rather than a challenge as some are suggesting. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.