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Episode 30: Why FAST Is Overrated; Earnings Recap from Paramount, Fubo, Warner Bros. Discovery, AMC, Lionsgate, Fastly, Vimeo

Podcast Episode 30 is live! This week we discuss why FAST services are overrated; the news that HBO Max and Discovery+ will launch as a single service in the U.S. next summer; we highlight the key data you need to know from Q2 earnings from Paramount (added 4.9M Paramount+ subs), fuboTV, (lost 70,000 subs), Lionsgate (added 1.8M Starz subs) and cover earnings from streaming vendors including Fastly, Brightcove and Vimeo. We also discuss why WPP, which is the world’s biggest advertising agency group, raised its revenue growth targets for 2022. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.

Companies, and services mentioned: Warner Bros. Discovery, HBO Max, Discovery+, fuboTV, Netflix, Tubi, Pluto TV, Paramount+, Sling TV, AMC Networks, F1, Lionsgate, Starz, Roku, Canal+, WPP, Liberty Media, Altice, Fastly, Cloudflare, Vimeo, Brightcove.

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Episode 29: Earnings Recap; Key Takeaways from Roku, Amazon, Apple, Charter, YouTube, Microsoft and Comcast

Podcast Episode 29 is live! This week we breakdown the key numbers you need to know from Q2 earnings at Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Comcast, Roku, Charter, Meta, Microsoft and Samsung. We cover the “significant slowdown in TV advertising” seen by Roku and others; Meta’s price per ad falling by 14%; Peacock TV subs being flat quarter-over-quarter; cord cutting from Charter (lost 240,000 pay TV subs) and Comcast (lost 521,000 pay TV subs); and YouTube’s slowest ad revenue growth in over two years. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.

Companies, and services mentioned: Companies, and services mentioned: YouTube, Netflix, Apple, Meta, Comcast, Charter, Peacock TV, Alphabet, Microsoft, Panopto, Kaltura, Shofify, Google Cloud, Quest 2, Samsung, AWS, Roku, Amazon, Apple TV+, NFL, Amazon Prime Video.

Episode 28: Extending Video Delivery To Rural ISPs; Snap and Twitter See Declining Ad Growth; Verizon Cord Cutting Accelerates

Podcast Episode 28 is live! This week we discuss the latest advertising numbers from Twitter and Snap’s Q2 earnings, which saw slowing demand for their platforms and had declining revenue. We also highlight the rate of Verizon’s cord-cutting numbers, with the company losing 86,000 pay TV subscribers in Q2 and have now lost 8.1% of all their pay TV subs in the last 12-months. Also discussed, Qwilt’s deal with the NCTC to deploy CDN caches inside 100+ rural ISPs that combined, reach 34 million households. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.

Companies, and services mentioned: Disney, ESPN+, Apple TV, fuboTV, Verizon, Twitter, Snap, MLB, ESPN+, HBO Max, Amazon Prime Video, Qwilt, Vimeo.

Edgecast Valued at $120M (0.5x 2021 Revenue) in Closing Transaction with Limelight Networks

In June, Edgio closed on the acquisition of Edgecast from Yahoo (Apollo Global Management) and it was widely reported that the deal for the company valued Edgecast at close to $300 million, which is incorrect. While the initial value for Edgecast was $185 million, Apollo gave Edgio $30 million in cash as part of the deal. They also gave Edgio a second $35 million cash payment for customary working capital adjustments, in exchange for 8 million shares in Edgio, the newly combined entity consisting of Limelight, Layer0 and Edgecast. One could argue that if you subtract the $65 million in cash Apollo gave Edgio, Edgecast was really valued at $120 million, or less than half of Edgecast’s 2021 revenue of $285 million. Here’s a breakdown on the deal terms.

Yahoo received 72 million shares from Edgio for the acquisition based on a locked in 30-day trailing VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) of $4.12 a share. But the effective price of Limelight shares (Limelight has since changed its ticker symbol and now trades under EGIO) at closing was approximately $2.30, so the net price Edgio paid based on shares issued and their market value was approximately $165 million.

As happens in every M&A situation, there are customary working capital adjustments at close, which amounted to approximately $35 million. In essence Edgecast was coming over with about $35 million more of assets. So Apollo, who was bullish on Edgio’s new strategy, decided to take 8 million shares in exchange for the assets. Apollo only got 8 million shares for that investment because it was based on the deal locked in VWAP price of $4.12. So in effect, Edgio issued another 8 million shares to Apollo in return for $35 million more of cash at closing indexed to Edgio’s locked-in VWAP price of $4.12. A 68% premium to the current price.

Yahoo (Apollo) can also receive up to an additional 12.7 million shares of Edgio, representing up to $100 million of additional deal consideration, over the period ending on the third anniversary of the closing of the transaction, subject to the achievement of share-price targets. Edgio stockholders now own approximately 65% of the combined company, while Yahoo will own approximately 35% respectively.

The final outcome of the deal is that Limelight more than doubled their revenue for $185 million and also got an additional $65 million of cash to go with it. So arguably Limelight’s final net price for Edgecast was approximately $120 million for the transaction. This is by far the best deal we have ever seen negotiated by a CDN vendor in acquiring a rival CDN, where the company wasn’t going under.

Note: I have never bought, sold or traded stock in any company that offers content delivery services – ever. Even in my managed accounts, no CDN vendor is included. I do not make money in any way, based on the share price of any CDN vendor.

Episode 27: Netflix Q2 Earnings Recap: Sub Counts; Balance Sheet; Ad-Supported Tier Opportunity

Podcast Episode 27 is live! This week we discuss the key takeaways from Netflix’s Q2 earnings report including subscriber losses for two-quarters in a row, what Netflix expects for growth going forward and the current state of Netflix’s balance sheet. We also detail what we’ve learned about their plans to offer an ad-supported tier and why we believe this is a real opportunity for Netflix, rather than a challenge as some are suggesting. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora.

Netflix Isn’t “Desperate For Cash”, These Are Their Financial Numbers You Need To Know

Some are saying that when it comes to Netflix’s finances they are “bleeding cash”, “desperate for cash”, or their finances are in trouble. This is not true. Numbers don’t lie. Here’s a breakdown of Netflix’s finances.

At the end of March, Netflix had $6 billion in cash. Their total debt stood at $14.6 billion and they paid $188 million in interest during the first quarter, which annualizes to $752 million. They have plenty of cash to pay their interest. Netflix expects to remain free cash flow (FCF) positive and has guided to 19-20% operating margins for the year. In Q1, net income was $1.6 billion, down 6.4% from the year-ago quarter. Revenue for the quarter grew 9.8% year over year to $7.9 billion. Netflix’s ARPU in Q4 2021 in the US/Canada was $14.78 and grew $0.13 to $14.92 at the end of Q2.

Net cash generated by operating activities in Q1 was $923 million vs. $777 million in the prior year period. Free cash flow amounted to $802 million vs. $692 million. Revenue from the United States and Canada grew 5.6%. Revenue from Netflix’s Europe, Middle East, and Africa region grew 9.3%. Latin America revenue rose 19.4%. Revenue from the Asia-Pacific region increased 20.3%. (all year-over-year)

Starting in 2025, Netflix will have nearly $7 billion in debt mature within a three-year span and one could argue that as Netflix replaces its bonds with new debt as they mature, the company “might” pay higher rates. But that’s not a problem today.

These are the numbers. They are definitive. There should be no debate or argument over what Netflix’s current financial resources are.

Episode 26: Previewing Netflix’s Earnings; Why Disney Passed on IPL Cricket Rights

Podcast Episode 26 is live! This week we breakdown a preview of what to look for in Netflix’s Q2 2021 earnings including subscriber losses/gains, ARPU and an expected update on their advertising strategy. We also discuss what the impact of Stranger Things Season 4 might be on churn and retention being Netflix split the release of the series across two financial quarters. We also detail the IPL Media streaming rights (2023-2027) auction won by Viacom18 and why Disney said they didn’t compete on the rights, at the priced needed to win the auction, based on the content not offering enough long-term value to their Disney+ Hotstar service. Thanks to this week’s podcast sponsor, Agora. 

Companies, and services mentioned: Netflix, Disney, Viacom18, Disney+ Hotstar, Amazon Fire TV.